The Russian leader Vladimir Putin is likely deliberately encouraging Ukraine to strike Moscow on May 9. This explains the Russian army’s disregard for Ukraine’s proposal for a temporary ceasefire on the night of May 5-6. Experts believe this strategy may be aimed at creating a pretext for further escalation of the conflict, particularly to justify the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
This is reported by Finway
Reasons and Goals of the Provocations
Analysts claim that the Kremlin seeks to test the level of support among the population, especially ahead of another wave of forced mobilization. Against the backdrop of a deteriorating economic situation, harsh repression, intensified censorship, and restricted internet access, traditional propaganda narratives are no longer as effective in convincing Russians of the necessity to continue the war against Ukraine.
Moreover, according to journalists, Putin should be interested in at least a temporary ceasefire to ensure the parade takes place and to allow for the restoration of fuel infrastructure that has suffered significant damage from recent Ukrainian drone and missile attacks.
Possible Consequences and Scenarios
Experts believe that if Ukrainian drones attack during the May 9 celebrations, it could provide Putin with a reason to test the loyalty of his inner circle, initiate another mobilization, and accuse Ukraine of disrupting peace negotiations. It is also possible that such a situation could be used to demonstrate the Kremlin’s resolve, particularly through the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
“One thing is certain — after five years of a major war, Putin hopes that escalation will help him break the deadlock. He also has no concept of Russia ‘without war’ — easing repression and censorship would be risky for his rule.”
It is noted that the Ukrainian side is already preparing for decisive events in the coming months, including a potentially difficult winter in the context of the war.