At the beginning of September, there is a decline in global oil prices. The main reasons for this phenomenon are related to traders’ expectations regarding the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, as well as concerns about a potential increase in production and the impact of American tariffs on demand for energy resources.
This is reported by Finway
Price Dynamics and Market Expectations
On Monday, September 1, Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.44% to $67.18 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate oil dropped by 28 cents, or 0.44%, to $63.73 per barrel. Analysts note that market activity was limited that day due to a public holiday in the U.S.
The situation in the market is complicated by traders’ expectations for the OPEC+ countries’ meeting on September 7. Market participants hope to receive additional signals regarding future production and supply policies for oil.
Production, Export, and Geopolitical Factors
Markets are closely monitoring the volume of oil supplies from the Russian Federation. According to ANZ’s analysis, last week, oil exports from Russian ports fell to a four-week low of 2.72 million barrels per day. However, traders predict that Russian exports to India may increase in September, despite the secondary tariffs imposed by the U.S. against Delhi for purchasing oil from Moscow.
“Modi’s meeting (Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi) with Putin (Russian dictator Vladimir Putin) in China will be closely monitored, especially in light of pressure from the U.S.,” said Michael McCarthy, CEO of Moomoo Australia.
A survey of analysts conducted at the end of August indicates that no significant increase in oil prices is expected by the end of the year. This is due to the risk of oversupply in the market due to increased production by leading producers, as well as limited demand due to the threat of new American tariffs.
At the same time, according to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude oil production reached a record high in June, hitting 13.58 million barrels per day, which is 133,000 barrels more than the previous month.