The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has revised its forecasts for global economic growth, as well as for Ukraine, downward, citing the negative impacts of US trade policy and increased tariffs.
This is reported by Finway
Global Economy Under Pressure from Trade Restrictions
According to the updated estimates from the OECD, global economic growth is expected to be only 2.9% in 2025 and 2026, compared to 3.3% last year. Analysts from the organization note that the current situation is complicated by trade wars initiated by the Trump administration, which have caused significant losses to the US economy and affected global markets.
The rise in trade costs, particularly in countries implementing new tariffs, may lead to additional inflationary pressure. OECD experts emphasize that further tariff increases could hinder the global economy’s return to a sustainable growth trajectory.
Forecasts for Key Economies and Ukraine
According to the OECD, the US economy is expected to grow by only 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, assuming current tariffs remain in place. In contrast, the Chinese economy is showing more dynamic growth: GDP is projected to increase by 4.7% this year and by 4.3% in 2026. In the European Union, growth rates will remain modest—1% this year and 1.2% next year.
Regarding Ukraine, the OECD concludes that the economic growth rate, which fell to 2.9% last year from 5.3% the year before, may decrease further—to 2% this year and remain at that level in 2026. The main drivers of economic growth in Ukraine will continue to be international financial assistance, increased defense spending, and demand from the private sector. However, the labor shortage will continue to limit economic potential, and the overall level of uncertainty is assessed as very high.
“Growth will be supported by international assistance, defense spending, and domestic private demand. At the same time, the labor shortage will continue to restrain growth, and uncertainty remains extremely high.”