The competition among leading companies in the field of artificial intelligence has transformed into a dynamic prediction market, where users actively place bets on the success of various AI models. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have become hubs for such financial operations, with the monthly trading volume on relevant contracts reaching $20 million in August 2025, ten times higher than the figures at the beginning of the year.
This is reported by Finway
Traders and Analysts Profit from Insights and Signals
Professional players, including prominent trader Foster McCoy, utilize a comprehensive approach to decision-making. McCoy, for instance, managed to earn $10,000 in profit within a few hours by betting against GPT-5 and choosing Google’s Gemini. He attributes his success to regular analysis of social media, Discord channels, and AI model ranking tables. Since the beginning of the year, he has conducted transactions worth $3.2 million on the Kalshi platform, earning $170,000 in profit.
Significant growth in activity in the prediction market has also been noticeable among regular users trying to leverage their own knowledge and intuition. The unique aspect of such bets is that they function like contracts: the price reflects the probability of an event, and participants can sell their predictions before the final outcome, profiting from fluctuations in odds.
The Impact of Social Media and Technical Changes on Betting
The AI model betting market reacts instantly to news triggers on social media. For example, after Elon Musk’s tweet about Grok’s advantages, the price of the “Grok to Win” contract surged by 500% within hours, only to drop sharply afterward. Users constantly monitor the activities of leaders from OpenAI, Google, and other industry giants, as well as analyze code updates on GitHub and mobile applications to anticipate the release of new models.
Harvard student Rishab Jain earned $3,500 by timely identifying technical signals indicating the imminent release of Gemini. He carefully analyzes changes in the backend of Google products that may hint at upcoming updates.
George Mason University economics professor Robin Hanson emphasizes that the increase in turnover in such markets raises the value of reliable information, while random bets become increasingly risky.
“I just love technology and can spend 10 minutes checking the market,” confessed investor James Cole.
The popularity of AI model races attracts not only professional traders but also ordinary users eager to capitalize on the constant media and social media attention in this area.
It is also known that the latest update of the GPT-5 chatbot has made this model more “warm and friendly.” According to OpenAI, the changes are “subtle” but aimed at improving the naturalness of communication with ChatGPT. The update was implemented after users expressed dissatisfaction with GPT-5’s excessive formality.
Additionally, the Claude chatbot from Anthropic has gained the ability to conclude conversations with users, which is also one of the latest innovations in the AI field.