In the coming days, a significant change in the cash dollar exchange rate is expected in Ukrainian banks. According to forecasts, by the end of the current working week (April 18), it will fluctuate between 40.9 and 41.1 UAH. On the evening of April 15, banks were buying currency at 40.85 UAH and selling it at 41.5 UAH. This means that an increase in the exchange rate for both buying and selling cannot be ruled out.
This is reported by Finway
In exchange offices, according to financial expert Oleksiy Kozyrev, the situation will be similar. The exchange rate there is likely to be between 41 and 41.8 UAH. The day before, on April 15, the dollar’s value in exchange offices averaged 40.58/41.02 UAH (buying/selling).
“Most exchange offices and banks, due to increased exchange rate risks, will widen the spread on the dollar (the difference between selling and buying rates) by 20 to 30 kopecks. Wholesale exchange offices will operate with a spread of 20-25 kopecks,” the message states.
Overall, the situation in the Ukrainian currency market in the coming days will depend on several factors.
Main Factors Influencing the Exchange Rate
One of the key factors is the trade war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump. Kozyrev notes: “The week will unfold against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, which will affect the behavior of all markets, including the euro/dollar pair on international currency platforms.”
Another important factor is the meeting of the NBU Board scheduled for April 17, where issues regarding future monetary policy will be addressed. According to Kozyrev, it is most likely that the regulator will raise the discount rate from 15.5% to 16-16.5% per annum, which “will be a positive factor for the hryvnia.”
Impact on Business and the Budget
Kozyrev also notes that businesses’ settlements with the budget through taxes and fees serve as a safeguard for the hryvnia, as exporters and importers are forced to use their hryvnia funds in dealings with the state. This makes it easier for the National Bank to smooth out exchange rate fluctuations in the interbank market, allowing them to “keep the situation under stricter control.”
“Considering all the aforementioned factors, the entire week in the currency market of Ukraine will be tense. It is likely that the National Bank will continue the practice of targeted dollar sales to certain major state-owned clients in the defense, energy, and critical infrastructure sectors,” the analyst concluded.