The analytical company Czarnikow has updated its global sugar balance forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year, reducing the expected surplus to 1.1 million tons. This figure is 300,000 tons lower than the March estimates and significantly less than earlier forecasts, which predicted a surplus of 3.4 million tons.
This is reported by Finway
Impact of Climate Anomalies on Sugar Production
The main reason for the revision of forecasts was the likelihood of the El Niño phenomenon affecting sugarcane yields. Typically, this climate anomaly leads to dry and hot periods in India and Thailand, negatively impacting yields. At the same time, in Brazil, El Niño causes excessive rainfall, slowing down the harvesting and processing of cane, complicating the stability of global sugar supplies.
Correction of Forecasts and Market Situation
According to updated data from Czarnikow, global sugar production in the 2026/27 marketing year is expected to be 180.4 million tons, which is 200,000 tons less than the previous forecast. Meanwhile, projected consumption has increased by 100,000 tons to 179.3 million tons, further tightening the supply and demand balance.
Despite the correction for the upcoming season, the forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year remains high: production could reach 184.1 million tons. For India, a harvest of about 28 million tons is expected, while Thailand is projected to rise to 12 million tons.
Analysts pay special attention to the fact that part of the sugarcane is directed towards ethanol production. The rise in oil and petroleum product prices makes ethanol production economically attractive, reducing the amount of sugar available on the global market.
“In the 2025/26 marketing year, the expected sugar surplus has been reduced to 5.8 million tons from the previous 8.3 million tons.”
Global Prices and the Situation in Ukraine
In April, sugar prices on global exchanges fell to multi-year lows after sharp fluctuations in March. May futures for white sugar in London dropped to about $424 per ton, while in New York, they fell to $306 per ton, indicating a decrease in market optimism.
In Ukraine, after restrictions on access to the European market, domestic prices are under pressure from weaker demand. At the same time, a slight recovery in quotes is observed at the level of 21,000–23,000 UAH per ton.
Experts emphasize that the further price dynamics will depend on the global production balance and the development of climate risks in leading sugar-producing countries.