The global soybean market is on the brink of a significant price drop. The main factor behind this is the large quantity of American soybeans that currently lacks demand from China. Grain market analyst Oleksandr Korenytsyn explains that China is actively increasing its soybean purchases from South American countries, reducing imports from the U.S., which creates uncertainty for traders regarding the sale of 20–30 million tons of American soybeans traditionally destined for China.
This is reported by Finway
Current Situation in the Ukrainian Agrarian Market
In Ukraine, soybean harvesting began at the end of August: 0.03 thousand hectares have been harvested with an average yield of 26.7 quintals per hectare. The total volume of soybeans harvested in the Kharkiv region amounts to 0.08 thousand tons. According to the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture, soybean exports reached 137.6 thousand tons, while soybean oil exports totaled 28 thousand tons.
Regarding wheat, by the end of August 2025, 4,873.1 thousand hectares (98% of the sown area) have been harvested, yielding 21,009.9 thousand tons with an average yield of 43.1 quintals per hectare. The largest volumes were harvested in Odesa (11%), Vinnytsia (9%), and Kirovohrad (8%) regions. Wheat exports amounted to 1,275.3 thousand tons.
According to Korenytsyn, corn exports reached 201.7 thousand tons. As of August 21, 2025, 1,304.6 thousand hectares (95% of the area) have been harvested, yielding 4,970.6 thousand tons with an average yield of 38.1 quintals per hectare. The most corn was harvested in Odesa (18%), Vinnytsia (8%), and Khmelnytskyi (8%) regions.
Global Forecasts and Ukrainian Oilseed Exports
According to updated forecasts, global corn production in the 2025/26 marketing year may reach a record 1,299 million tons, which is 23 million tons more than previously expected. This increase is primarily due to improved yields of American corn, estimated at 423.5 million tons (up from previous estimates of 398.9 million tons).
As for other crops, barley exports from Ukraine totaled 247.2 thousand tons, sunflower seeds – 0.5 thousand tons, and sunflower oil – 103 thousand tons. Sunflower harvesting has begun in Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa regions: 3.2 thousand hectares have been harvested, yielding 1.8 thousand tons with an average yield of 5.6 quintals per hectare.
In Ukraine, rapeseed has been harvested from 1,283 thousand hectares (101% of the projected area), yielding 3,162.8 thousand tons with a yield of 24.7 quintals per hectare. The largest amounts of rapeseed were harvested in Odesa (17%), Vinnytsia (12%), and Khmelnytskyi (10%) regions. Rapeseed exports totaled 296.8 thousand tons.
“For comparison: in the first 15 days of August 2025, 1.8 million tons of grains and oilseeds and their processed products were exported. This is 73% more than the same indicator for the previous month. In July 2025, 2.9 million tons of grains and oilseeds, as well as their processed products, were exported. This was 6% less than the same indicator for the previous month,” noted analyst Oleksandr Korenytsyn.
According to the State Customs Service, in the first half of August 2025, 1.6 million tons were exported through the seaports of the Odesa region, 0.04 million tons through the Danube river ports, 0.1 million tons by rail, and 0.02 million tons by road transport. In July 2025, 2.5 million tons were exported through the seaports of the Odesa region, 0.1 million tons through the Danube river ports, 0.2 million tons by rail, and 0.1 million tons by road transport.