Global oil prices are showing a decline on Tuesday due to expectations of increased supply in the market, occurring against a backdrop of weak demand. Analysts emphasize that the market is closely monitoring the potential rise in production in Venezuela, which could impact the balance of supply and demand in 2026.
This is reported by Finway
Price Dynamics and Geopolitical Influence
Brent crude futures fell by 0.2% to $61.62 per barrel, while the price of American West Texas Intermediate dropped by 0.3% to $58.13 per barrel. According to Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, the market’s reaction to recent geopolitical events, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela and attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, has been subdued.
“From a supply perspective, the oil market is oversaturated. According to the latest data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), global crude oil supply continues to outpace consumption growth, leading to stockpiling and maintaining pressure on prices,” she said.
Outlook for the Venezuelan Market
Market participants predict that oil prices may remain under pressure in 2026 due to excess supply and weak demand. One reason for this could be the potential increase in production in Venezuela following the U.S. capture of the country’s leader, Nicolás Maduro. Further lifting of American sanctions on Venezuelan oil could pave the way for increased exports.
The U.S. administration plans to hold a meeting with oil and gas company leaders soon to discuss ways to boost production in Venezuela. Marex analyst Ed Mear believes that partial implementation of Trump’s plans could lead to an increase in Venezuelan oil production, which would only exacerbate the oversupply in the market.
Venezuela, one of the founding members of OPEC and possessing the largest oil reserves in the world (about 303 billion barrels), has shown a decline in production in recent years due to a lack of investment and U.S. sanctions. In 2025, the average daily production was 1.1 million barrels. Analysts suggest that with political stability and the influx of American investments, the country could increase production to 1.6 million barrels per day within two years.
At the same time, an ANZ Research report notes that political instability in Venezuela remains high. Significant financial inflows will be needed for further production growth beyond the country’s current capacities.