Analysts have raised their forecasts for carbon credit prices in the European Union for the coming years, noting the impact of decarbonization processes on the market. According to a survey of ten experts, the average price of carbon emission allowances (EUA) is expected to be €92.65 per ton in 2026, and €107.29 per ton in 2027. In comparison, last October’s forecasts were €91.11 and €106.94, respectively.
This is reported by Finway
Price Volatility in the EU Carbon Market
Experts point to potential volatility in trading in 2026, as the price of the underlying contract may fluctuate depending on gas price variations in Europe. In the short term, CO2 prices will remain closely linked to the gas market; however, the further implementation of decarbonization technologies and the gradual phase-out of free allowances by industry may alter the balance of demand and prices.
Long-Term Expectations and Influencing Factors
“In the short term, CO2 prices in the EU will continue to correlate with gas prices. However, as new industrial players gradually move away from free allowances, demand will slowly shift towards industrial needs and prices, depending on the cost of decarbonization technologies.”
Hege Fjellheim, head of carbon analysis at Veyt, predicts a sharp rise in European carbon credit prices in the coming years, starting in 2027. This is attributed to strengthened market balances and a reduction in the supply of free allowances.
The forecast for 2028 remains stable – the average price of EUA is expected to be €110.9 per ton, which is almost unchanged from the previous estimate of €110.2 per ton made last October. Thus, the overall trend indicates a continued increase in prices in the EU carbon market, linked to the decarbonization strategy and the influence of energy factors.