The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has significantly revised its growth forecast for the global economy for 2025, citing the escalation of the global trade war arising from the introduction of new tariffs. According to Fitch’s estimates, global gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2025 will not exceed 2%, marking the lowest level since 2009, excluding the pandemic period.
This is reported by Finway
The agency has lowered its global economic growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points and also revised its forecasts for the United States and China, reducing them by 0.5 percentage points compared to the data from March. Annual growth in the U.S. is expected to remain positive, reaching 1.2% in 2025; however, in the fourth quarter, the growth rate will slow to 0.4% on an annual basis.
Additionally, Fitch anticipates that China’s growth will remain below 4% both this year and next, while growth in the Eurozone will not exceed 1%. Thus, the agency expects that the effective tariff rate between the U.S. and China will remain above 100%, but will gradually decrease to 60% next year.