The currency market in Ukraine is currently experiencing relative stability, with minimal risks of a sharp increase in the dollar exchange rate. In November, the hryvnia continues to hold its position, although a slight increase in the exchange rate by the end of the year is still possible.
This is reported by Finway
Dollar Exchange Rate Dynamics in Autumn
In autumn 2025, the dollar in Ukraine is showing a gradual increase. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, the official exchange rate rose by 83 kopecks in October, from 41.14 to 41.97 hryvnias. At the beginning of November, the trend of gradual strengthening of the dollar continued. Since the start of the month, the rate has increased by another 9 kopecks, reaching 42.06 hryvnias. However, this is still below this year’s peak, recorded in January at 42.28 hryvnias per dollar.
Since autumn 2023, Ukraine has been operating under a managed floating exchange rate regime, which involves determining the dollar’s value in the interbank market with active participation from the National Bank. The regulator has the ability to buy or sell currency from reserves, allowing it to smooth out sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate and maintain market stability.
Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast Until the End of the Year
According to financial experts’ assessments, the hryvnia will continue to demonstrate stability in November, with no significant fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate expected. There are currently no significant risks for a rapid depreciation of the hryvnia. The volumes of currency reserves remain sufficient, allowing the National Bank to fully control the situation.
“Rumors about a sharp depreciation of the hryvnia are exaggerated; the regulator currently has complete control over the situation. Significant fluctuations are not expected, as the volume of currency reserves remains adequate,” explained Sergey Fursa, Deputy Director of Securities Trading at the investment company Dragon Capital.
At the same time, experts note that the risk of a sharp increase in the dollar could rise only in the event of unforeseen circumstances – for example, emergencies at the front or large-scale energy attacks that could impact market expectations. However, such factors are not currently observed. The current scenario for the next 2–3 months suggests the maintenance of stability in the currency market.
Alongside this, experts do not rule out a slight depreciation of the hryvnia by the end of the year. It is expected that the exchange rate will gradually approach the range of 43–44 hryvnias per dollar. A change in currency policy is only possible in the event of a correction of cooperation conditions with the IMF or changes in macroeconomic factors.