The official dollar exchange rate increased by less than 1% over the past week, maintaining a moderate trend without significant fluctuations. According to financial experts, the market remained stable, and changes in the currency value were minimal.
This is reported by Finway
Dynamics of Official and Cash Exchange Rates
From September 22 to 26, the National Bank of Ukraine recorded the following official dollar exchange rates:
- September 22 — 41.2502 UAH/$;
- September 23 — 41.3811 UAH/$;
- September 24 — 41.3780 UAH/$;
- September 25 — 41.4105 UAH/$;
- September 26 — 41.4939 UAH/$.
The average exchange rate for the week was 41.3827 UAH/$. The cash market showed values close to the official rates: after a slight decrease in the first days of the week, the average buying and selling rates at bank counters remained stable. In particular, on Wednesday and Thursday, prices rose to 41.09/41.59 UAH/$ and 41.15/41.64 UAH/$, respectively, and by the end of the week, they stabilized at 41.14/41.66 UAH/$. The difference between the official and cash rates was below the target figure — only 0.11%.
Situation on the Interbank Market
The interbank market during the week was characterized by a temporary weakening of the hryvnia and increased intraday volatility, but without forming a stable trend of devaluation. The week began with quotes of 41.37–41.42 UAH/$, after which the rate dropped to 41.34 UAH/$, and then returned to the level of 41.40 UAH/$. Throughout the week, minor fluctuations were observed: on Thursday, the rate fluctuated between 41.43–41.53 UAH/$, and by the end of the week, it decreased to 41.38 UAH/$.
The volumes of currency interventions by the NBU for the week were nearly at the level of early September, but 14% lower than the previous week. From September 22 to 26, the net volume of currency sales amounted to $559.8 million, compared to $651.5 million the week before.
“Without new negative shocks, the market should remain within a controlled corridor,” said Hanna Zolotko, a board member and director of the treasury operations department at Unex Bank.
According to the expert, the current stability of the hryvnia is supported by the NBU’s discount rate at 15.5%, which limits devaluation pressure and maintains the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments.
The forecast for the current week suggests that the exchange rate will remain within a narrow range, provided there are no external shocks. The main influencing factors remain the timing of international aid arrivals, fulfillment of state and external obligations, as well as news of an international and geopolitical nature that may quickly impact the balance of supply and demand in the currency market.