At the end of April, the euro exchange rate in Ukraine is demonstrating increased volatility compared to the dollar. According to experts, the National Bank of Ukraine maintains control over the situation, although external factors may cause unexpected fluctuations.
This is reported by Finway
Current Situation in the Currency Market
In the coming days, sharp jumps in the exchange rate are not expected, as the actions of the regulator remain a key factor for market stability. The currency market in Ukraine operates on the principle of “managed flexibility,” meaning that the NBU does not fix the rate rigidly but also does not allow chaotic changes. As noted by Taras Lesovyi, the director of the financial markets and investment activities department at GLOBUS BANK, the main scenario anticipates a balance between supply and demand.
“Despite external risks, the regulator will maintain a central role in shaping exchange rate dynamics, and the factors that have recently created additional pressure, including fuel prices, currently do not appear strong enough to radically change the situation.”
According to the banker, if no force majeure circumstances arise, the volume of currency interventions in the interbank market is unlikely to exceed 700–800 million dollars per week. This allows for relative stability of the exchange rate.
Impact of External Factors and Euro Dynamics Forecast
Among the main factors that will influence the currency market at the end of April and the beginning of May is the provision of a 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine from the European Union. This is a positive signal that enhances the possibilities for budget balancing and reduces devaluation risks.
The expert emphasizes that the euro exchange rate in Ukraine remains more sensitive to changes in the external environment than the dollar. Throughout April, the euro recorded historical highs several times, after which it showed a decline, related to the influence of the international political situation and the behavior of the euro/dollar pair in global markets. When geopolitical tensions increased, the dollar strengthened, and after the situation stabilized, the euro partially regained its positions.
According to Taras Lesovyi’s forecast, the euro/dollar currency pair may remain in the range of 1.14–1.18 in the near term, which will directly affect the euro exchange rate in Ukraine. In April, the divergent dynamics of the euro is likely to continue into the first days of May.
Currency Exchange Rate Forecast for the Coming Week
According to expert assessments, from April 27 to May 3, significant fluctuations in the currency market are not expected. The trend towards moderate changes established after the March pressure will persist.
Main forecasts for the market:
- Interbank: dollar — 43.8–44.35 UAH, euro — 50.5–52.5 UAH;
- Cash market: dollar — 43.75–44.5 UAH, euro — 50.5–52 UAH.
Daily fluctuations in the exchange rate on the interbank market may reach up to 15 kopecks, in banks — up to 20 kopecks, and in exchange offices — up to 30 kopecks. The average difference between the interbank and cash rates remains within 10–15 kopecks.
According to the analyst, exchange rate fluctuations during the week are unlikely to exceed 1–1.5% from the initial level. The high level of control by the NBU remains a guarantee that the situation will not get out of hand. According to reports, the euro last reached record values on April 22, when the official rate reached 51.91 UAH.