One of the largest banks in the U.S., Citibank, has revised its three-month gold price forecast, raising it from $3300 to $3500 per ounce. The new expected trading range is $3300–$3500 per ounce, which is higher than the previous forecast of $3100–$3500.
This is reported by Finway
Factors for Citibank’s forecast revision
The bank justifies the increase in its forecast by the deterioration of short-term economic growth prospects in the U.S., rising inflation, and a weakening dollar. Citibank experts note that concerns about the pace of economic growth and inflation driven by tariffs will remain relevant throughout the second half of 2025. This, combined with a weak dollar, creates conditions for setting new historical highs for the price of gold.
“Concerns about the pace of U.S. economic growth and tariff-related inflation will remain high in the second half of 2025. This, along with a weak dollar, could contribute to further increases in the price of gold to new historical highs,” Citi stated.
Reasons for changes in gold price expectations
Among the key reasons affecting the situation are the new high import tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on goods from many countries, including Canada, Brazil, India, and Taiwan. According to trade representative Jamison Greer, these tariffs are likely to persist.
Another factor is the weakening of the dollar following the release of weak labor market data in the U.S.: only 73,000 new jobs were created in the non-farm sector in July, significantly lower than the 140,000 in June. This has raised expectations for a possible rate cut by the Fed in September, which markets estimate has an 81% probability according to CME FedWatch.
Additionally, Citibank points to weaker quarterly employment figures, growing distrust in the Fed, and high geopolitical risks related to Russia’s war against Ukraine.
According to the bank’s analysts, since mid-2022, gross demand for gold has increased by more than a third, nearly doubling its price by the second quarter of 2025. Among the main drivers of demand growth are investor activity, moderate purchases by central banks, and stable demand for jewelry despite high prices.
As of 03:40 GMT on Monday, the spot price of gold was $3356.88 per ounce.