In 2025, the Belarusian budget faced a decline in tax revenues, which account for over 80% of the state treasury’s income. This drop occurred due to a reduction in revenues from foreign economic activity, resulting in tax revenues decreasing from nearly 25% of GDP in 2023–2024 to 24% in 2025.
This is reported by Finway
Increasing Role of Russian Transfers in Belarusian Finances
The shortfall in tax revenues has been partially compensated by non-tax revenues, primarily transfers from Russia. Among these are compensations for the reverse excise tax for Belarusian oil refineries, which reached 1.8% of GDP in 2025. This level was last recorded in 2018 during the so-called “re-importation” scheme of Russian oil.
“The situation will worsen. In 2026, analysts expect the deficit to grow to 1–1.5% of GDP: revenues will stagnate due to an economic slowdown, while expenditures will remain high. There is a certain buffer, but significantly increasing expenses will no longer be possible,” emphasized the SZRU.
Expenditures and Measures to Cover the Deficit
For the first time since 2010, the expenditures of the consolidated budget of Belarus exceeded 30% of GDP, although the country’s economy showed only a 1.3% growth. The main area of expenditure was the salaries of public sector employees, which increased by 18% in nominal terms and could reach 10% of GDP — this constitutes a third of all budget expenditures.
To cover the deficit arising from insufficient tax revenues, the National Bank of Belarus purchased government bonds worth 2.3 billion Belarusian rubles, equivalent to approximately 0.8% of GDP. This effectively represents emission financing of the budget deficit.
Moreover, expenditures on security forces and the judicial system are increasing, further exacerbating the financial situation in the country.