The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine recorded a decline in gross domestic product of 1.2% in the first two months of 2026. In comparison, throughout 2025, the country’s economy grew by 1.8%, so the current decline represents approximately two-thirds of last year’s growth.
This is reported by Finway
“In Ukraine, GDP fell by 1.2% in January-February 2026”.
This was stated by Minister of Economy Oleksiy Sobolev during a plenary session of the Verkhovna Rada, explaining that several factors influenced the short-term reduction in economic activity:
- intensified missile and air strikes from Russia;
- abnormally cold weather, which complicated the operations of enterprises and increased energy consumption;
- interruptions in electricity supply, which caused temporary shutdowns of some production capacities.
The most negative impact of these factors was felt by metallurgy, the mining industry, the transportation sector, and energy.
Sectors with Positive Dynamics
Despite the overall decline, certain industries are showing growth. In particular, domestic trade increased by 13% in January, construction grew by 3%, and the manufacturing sector continues to develop steadily.
According to the National Bank, in February, the business sentiment index rose to 45.9 from 41 in January. Additionally, exports of goods increased by 1.7% in January and by 3.6% in February.
Forecast for Spring 2026
The Ministry of Economy expects that economic activity will recover in the spring. With changing weather conditions and stabilization of energy supply, enterprises will gradually be able to compensate for the losses incurred at the beginning of the year, and GDP will return to positive dynamics.
According to the State Statistics Service, in the fourth quarter of 2025, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 3% compared to the same period in 2024.