Ukraine’s external debt currently stands at about 100% of gross domestic product, but experts assure that the situation remains under control thanks to a favorable structure of obligations. A significant portion of the debt consists of concessional loans received by Ukraine during the full-scale war at low interest rates of 1–3% per annum, with long repayment terms.
This is reported by Finway
Debt Structure and New Loan Programs
Doctor of Economic Sciences, member of the National Bank of Ukraine Council Vasyl Furman notes that funds amounting to 90 billion euros are already partially included in the state budget for 2026. These amounts will be received gradually over two years, and Ukraine will repay this loan after receiving reparations from the Russian Federation. This decision opens up additional opportunities for financing state expenditures, particularly tax revenues, and positively impacts the investment climate.
“These funds will flow into the budget over 2 years. This is a loan that will be repaid when the Russian Federation pays reparations. And this is a significant advantage for our state. It will allow us to finance the taxes of the state budget. Was there a Plan B for Ukraine? Yes, but those were very complicated options. This decision has a very positive effect not only on expenditures. For investors and the public, the very fact is important. Inflationary and devaluation expectations of people also affect the currency market. Due to the war in the Middle East, the demand for currency has doubled,” emphasized Furman.
According to the expert, the funds raised can be directed towards purchasing weapons for Ukraine both on the domestic market and abroad, for example, in Germany, France, or even outside the European Union. At the same time, these loans cannot be used to finance the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the military-industrial complex, or to pay salaries to military personnel.
Deferral of Payments and Financial Stability
Deferring payments on state debt until 2030 allows for a reduction in the peak burden on the budget in the coming years. Estimates suggest that this involves tens of billions of dollars in payments that are being postponed to the 2030s. This enables more resources to be directed towards defense and other budgetary needs, reduces pressure on the currency market, and contributes to the stability of the hryvnia. Furman emphasizes that this is not a write-off, but merely a postponement of payments – a critically important decision for maintaining the financial stability of the state.
Ukraine’s external debt, which amounts to about 230–240 billion dollars, is considered high but not critical for a country at war. For comparison, Italy’s public debt is 140% of GDP, the USA’s is 120%, and Japan’s is 250%. According to the expert, the key factor is not the absolute level of debt, but its structure and servicing costs. Over more than four years of large-scale war, Ukraine has attracted about 175 billion dollars in external financial assistance from 30 countries and international organizations.
In particular, the European Union provided 55 billion euros, the International Monetary Fund – 15 billion dollars, and the USA – 30 billion dollars. Albania supported Ukraine with 1 billion dollars, while the Baltic countries each contributed 12–16 billion dollars. The increase in public debt during the war is a completely expected phenomenon, as financial resources become a necessary weapon to ensure the country’s defense capability and resilience.
It is also worth noting that the EU Council has approved a key legislative act that allows the European Commission to start disbursing a loan to Ukraine amounting to 90 billion euros as early as the second quarter of 2026.