A new scientific study suggests that if extreme ecological scenarios are realized, the Earth’s population could be halved by 2064. The mathematical model developed by Mattia Zaccone and the late Konstantin Trachenko was based on a nonlinear “feedback rate” equation previously used in the physics of glass and amorphous materials. The researchers found that this approach allows for the reproduction of key stages in the changes of humanity’s population over the last 12 millennia.
This is reported by Finway
Modeling demographic processes and historical trends
Unlike traditional demographic models that described population growth as exponential or logistic, the new approach enabled the identification of various historical patterns based on a single universal equation. The scientists noted that periods of rapid growth and slow stabilization could be the result of the same nonlinear dynamics rather than different factors.
The study also re-evaluated the well-known 1960 forecast by Heinz von Foerster and his colleagues. Those scientists suggested that humanity’s population could theoretically grow to infinity by 2026. However, this scenario did not materialize due to declining birth rates in many regions of the world. At the same time, the new model shows that under certain extreme circumstances, such uncontrolled dynamics could emerge.
Probable future scenarios under the influence of ecological crises
The researchers tested their model by comparing it with demographic data from various historical epochs. It turned out that it accurately reproduces both the rapid population growth during the industrialization period and its slowdown after 1970.
Particular attention in the work was given to analyzing scenarios in which the planet faces significant ecological stress. In the base case of the model, the population remains stable, showing no signs of catastrophic decline. However, if the Earth’s carrying capacity suddenly decreases due to climate collapse, large-scale pandemics, wars, or severe resource shortages, a sharp demographic decline could occur.
In the worst-case scenario, humanity could lose half of its population by around 2064
The authors emphasize that this is not a specific forecast but a mathematical experiment illustrating the vulnerability of demographic systems to large-scale ecological or social upheavals. Although the study does not predict an inevitable collapse, it demonstrates that in the event of deepening global crises, pressure on ecosystems and resource limitations could significantly alter the course of civilization’s development in the coming decades.
