Analysts predict a significant reduction in smartphone shipments in 2026, which could lead to a serious shortage in the market, especially among low-cost models. According to research firm Counterpoint, a decline of 13.9% is expected compared to the previous year, amounting to approximately 1.08 billion devices. This will mark the lowest figure in the last 13 years.
This is reported by Finway
Memory Supply Crisis and Rising Prices
The main reason for the decrease in smartphone production is the prolonged crisis in memory supply. The rapid development of artificial intelligence has driven up demand for RAM, causing shortages and sharp price increases. As a result, manufacturers are forced to cut back on the production of budget phones, and in some countries, the segment of models priced under $150 may disappear altogether.
“The segment of phones priced under $150 will effectively disappear forever in some markets.”
This will complicate the situation for companies targeting the budget segment and emerging markets. At the same time, large brands with integrated supply chains, such as Samsung and Apple, remain the most protected from the crisis.
Leaders and Outsiders in the Smartphone Market in 2026
According to forecasts, iPhone shipments in 2026 will remain stable and may even increase by about 5%. Samsung may experience a slight decline of 4%, which is still a smaller loss compared to the average market figures. Huawei shows a 1% increase in the first quarter of the year due to maintaining competitive prices.
Meanwhile, Xiaomi has experienced the largest decline among the top five brands: in the first quarter of 2026, shipments decreased by 19%.
Xiaomi 17 Ultra smartphone
In the new conditions, the biggest beneficiary may be the refurbished smartphone sector, with demand expected to rise by 13% in 2026. Given the rising prices of new phones, more consumers will choose such devices.
Experts believe that the smartphone market will not be able to recover before 2028. If the current crisis drags on, some brands may not withstand the competition and exit the market.