The National Bank of Ukraine has published a new inflation report outlining positive trends for the Ukrainian labor market in the coming years. According to the regulator’s forecasts, the main drivers of change will be economic recovery and the transformation of migration processes.
This is reported by Finway
Return of labor migrants and changes in demographic dynamics
In 2026, the NBU expects that the net outflow of the population abroad will still persist, but its volume will significantly decrease — approximately 0.2 million people. Starting from 2027, a turning point is forecasted: labor migrants will gradually begin to return to the country. In particular, in 2027, a net influx of about 0.1 million people is expected, and by 2028 this figure may rise to 0.5 million citizens returning home.
The National Bank notes that these estimates are based on the expected reduction of security risks and improvement of the economic environment.
Unemployment dynamics and growth of real incomes
The revival of economic activity, according to experts, will support high demand for labor. This will provide a foundation for improving the welfare of the population and will positively impact the labor market. According to the regulator’s forecast, the unemployment rate in 2026 may decrease to 10%, and during 2027–2028 it is expected to stabilize at around 9%.
At the same time, the NBU anticipates significant growth in real wages. In particular, in 2026, the average real wage will increase by more than 11%. In 2027–2028, the growth rates are expected to remain consistently high — within 6–7% annually. These trends are expected to form the basis for the recovery of domestic demand and the increase of financial stability for Ukrainian families.