In Ukraine, the minimum wage will be 8,647 hryvnias starting in 2025. However, experts warn that this increase may not meet the actual needs of the population, as the new minimum wage level remains below the actual subsistence minimum. This could lead to an increase in the proportion of citizens living below the poverty line.
This is reported by Finway
“The subsistence minimum for an adult, calculated based on current prices, reached 11,464.27 hryvnias in June 2025 (after tax – 8,421.94 hryvnias). Those earning less than this amount are considered poor.”
Salary Growth Forecast until 2028
The government has released resolution No. 946 dated August 6, which presents the forecast for the economic and social development of the country for 2026-2028. The document outlines two scenarios for future developments: optimistic and pessimistic.
- Optimistic Scenario: anticipates a significant improvement in the security situation starting in 2026. Under this scenario, the average nominal salary may be:
- 2026 – 30,240 UAH;
- 2027 – 35,268 UAH;
- 2028 – 39,758 UAH.
- Pessimistic Scenario: takes into account the continuation of full-scale military aggression from Russia. In this case, the average salary is projected to be:
- 2026 – 30,032 UAH;
- 2027 – 34,808 UAH;
- 2028 – 39,436 UAH.
Employment Prospects
According to the optimistic scenario, an improvement in the labor market is expected during 2026-2028. The number of employed individuals aged 15 to 70 may increase from 13 to 13.2 million, indicating a gradual recovery of economic activity.
However, experts reiterate: for a real reduction in poverty levels, the government needs to revise social standards in accordance with the current level of prices and expenses.