Investment firm Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for oil prices for the fourth quarter of 2026, raising the expected price of Brent oil to $90 per barrel and American WTI to $83 per barrel. The main factor behind this decision was the reduction in oil production in the Middle East, which affects the global market balance.
This is reported by Finway
Expectations of oil shortage and market impact
According to analysts, investors anticipate an oil shortage as early as the second quarter of 2026. This is due not only to export restrictions from Middle Eastern countries but also to the slow recovery of production in key oil-producing regions. In particular, Goldman Sachs experts note that the decline in production in the Middle East will lead to a rapid reduction in global oil inventories — by 11-12 million barrels per day in April.
“Economic risks are greater than our baseline scenario for oil suggests, due to net risks of rising oil prices, extremely high prices for petroleum products, risks of product shortages, and the unprecedented scale of the shock,” explained GS analysts.
Changes in the timeline for export normalization and demand
The company’s experts have downgraded forecasts for the recovery of oil exports from Gulf countries through the Strait of Hormuz: while normalization was previously expected by mid-May, this timeline has now been pushed back to the end of June. At the same time, the pace of production recovery remains below expectations, further pressuring global oil supply.
According to Goldman Sachs analysts, a shortage of oil is expected in the second quarter at a level of 9.6 million barrels per day, whereas a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day was recorded in 2025. Despite this, demand forecasts are also being adjusted: in the second quarter of 2026, demand for oil may decrease by 1.7 million barrels per day, and throughout 2026 — by 100,000 barrels per day. The main reason for this decline is attributed to the sharp rise in petroleum product prices, which affects consumption.