Analysts from the financial conglomerate Citi Group suggest that by the end of 2025, the price of gold in global markets may fall below the $3000 per ounce mark, and in 2026, it could drop to the level of $2500–2700. Such a development would mark the end of one of the longest periods of rising prices in commodity exchanges.
This is reported by Finway
Factors Influencing the Decline in Gold Prices
The report from Citi Group experts indicates that the main reasons for the potential drop in quotations include a decrease in investment demand, improved global economic prospects, and the expected reduction in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate. Experts note that even a slight increase in confidence in the stability of the global economy, driven by the U.S. fiscal stimulus policy and the easing of the trade policy under the Trump administration, could significantly reduce demand for gold from investors starting in the fourth quarter of 2025.
“Our work shows that by the second half of 2026, the price of gold will return to a level of approximately $2500–2700 per ounce”.
Additionally, there is a high likelihood of the Fed shifting from a restrictive to a neutral monetary policy. This could also contribute to a decrease in the value of the precious metal.
Scenarios for Gold Price Dynamics
Citi Group analysts consider three possible scenarios for the gold market:
- Base Scenario (60% probability): Over the next quarter, the price of gold will consolidate above $3000 per ounce, after which it will fall below this mark.
- Positive or “Bullish” Scenario (20% probability): In the third quarter of 2025, prices may reach a new high due to concerns over tariffs, geopolitical instability, and stagflation risks.
- Negative or “Bearish” Scenario (20% probability): A swift resolution of trade issues could lead to a massive sell-off of gold.
As of the morning of June 19, the spot price of gold has risen by 0.2% to $3374.54 per ounce, while futures for American gold have decreased to $3391.90 (-0.5%). If Citi’s forecast materializes, the price of gold could drop by 20–27% from the current level.
This year, the price of bullion has increased by nearly 30%, setting a record in April. This surge was driven by the impact of President Donald Trump’s trade policy, tensions in the Middle East, concerns over the U.S. budget deficit, and active gold purchases by central banks seeking to diversify their reserves.