The Ukrainian hryvnia maintains stability due to the significant volume of the country’s foreign exchange reserves, as well as the steady inflow of foreign currency earnings from exports. As of today, the situation in the foreign exchange market remains predictable, and no significant fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate are expected in the coming weeks.
This is reported by Finway
Factors Influencing the Foreign Exchange Market
Experts believe that in the absence of new serious risks to Ukraine’s economy, changes in the dollar exchange rate will remain minimal. Hanna Zolotko, a board member and director of the treasury operations department at Unex Bank, emphasizes that the impact of the war and global economic trends still creates some uncertainty. However, unless there are delays in international financial support or new escalations, exchange rate changes will be minimal.
“The war and the global economy leave uncertainty: delays in international support or new escalations could weaken the hryvnia. If such risks do not arise, exchange rate changes will remain insignificant – within 0.5–1.5% of the current level over the next two to three weeks,” the expert forecasts.
Exchange Rate Dynamics and Market Trends
The National Bank of Ukraine maintains exchange rate stability through cautious policies and the presence of large reserves. Currently, the demand for foreign currency from the population remains low, while businesses are preparing for seasonal purchases. According to Hanna Zolotko, there were no sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate last week – the difference between the beginning and the end of the week was less than 0.3%. Thus, on August 18, the dollar was priced at 41.34 UAH, and on August 22, it was 41.22 UAH. In banks, the exchange rate fluctuated between 41.01-41.58 UAH depending on the day.
On the interbank market, a wave-like dynamic was observed: initially, the hryvnia weakened slightly, strengthened in the middle of the week, and by Friday, it lost positions again. On the last day of the week, the dollar rose by 16 kopecks, reaching 41.36 UAH, while the overall change in the hryvnia for the week was only 8 kopecks.