By the end of 2025, the dollar exchange rate is likely to remain stable and is unlikely to exceed the mark of 43.5 UAH per dollar, and under certain conditions, it may even be lower. This forecast was presented by the chief economist of the investment company Dragon Capital and a member of the Supervisory Board of the Center for Economic Strategy, Olena Bilan, in the podcast “What’s Happening with the Economy?”
This is reported by Finway
Situation in the Currency Market
According to Olena Bilan, the National Bank of Ukraine currently has broader maneuvering capabilities, allowing it to maintain the exchange rate with relative stability. The expert emphasized that forecasting the dollar exchange rate remains a challenging task, as it largely depends on future decisions of the NBU.
“The National Bank has more opportunities to maneuver and more possibilities to keep the exchange rate relatively stable. So it is possible that by the end of the year we will not see significant shifts at all,” the expert said.
Bilan noted that forecasting the exchange rate often resembles “guessing,” as even the most scientific models cannot accurately predict its dynamics. She cited research indicating that random walks often yield results no worse than complex economic models, although the latter still have certain advantages.
Factors Influencing Inflation and the Hryvnia Exchange Rate
The economist emphasized that in Ukraine, the actions of the National Bank play a key role in shaping the currency market, as it is the one controlling the market. The main task of the regulator remains to bring inflation back to the target level and maintain it, while the exchange rate of the hryvnia is used as a tool to achieve this goal.
Additionally, Bilan pointed out that one of the main factors supporting inflationary pressure is the labor market shortage, which has persisted since 2023. There is a particularly acute shortage of qualified specialists, leading to rising wages and relatively high inflation. As mobilization continues in the country, the labor shortage does not disappear, which continues to affect wage growth and the overall price level.