Ukrainian entrepreneurs expect further growth in the dollar exchange rate – averaging up to 45 UAH per dollar over the next year. This forecast is higher than the previous estimate of 44.27 UAH. Such data was obtained based on a survey of business leaders.
This is reported by Finway
“A significant portion of respondents expect the dollar to remain within the range of 45-46.5 UAH, and the euro to be 52–54 UAH. This indicates an increase in uncertainty and caution in forecasts”.
Prospects for major currencies and inflation
For the first time, businesses have also expressed their expectations regarding the euro exchange rate – it could reach around 54 UAH per euro. These estimates indicate heightened uncertainty in the currency market, as well as a cautious approach to planning future financial indicators.
Regarding inflation, businesses maintain expectations at 11.1% for the coming year. The key factors influencing these forecasts remain the war, currency fluctuations, and rising production costs.
- War
- Currency fluctuations
- Increased production costs
Economic sentiment and credit activity
Despite currency risks, the business expectations index has risen to 105.8%, demonstrating a predominance of optimistic expectations among enterprises. Companies are counting on expanding production, increasing sales, and enhancing investment activity, particularly in the area of technical modernization.
- Expansion of production
- Increase in sales
- Activation of investments in technical upgrades
At the same time, while businesses continue to hope for an influx of foreign capital, the level of confidence in this has somewhat decreased. The share of companies planning to attract loans remains stable at around 35.6%.
It should be noted that at the beginning of spring this year, Ukraine faced accelerating inflation: in March, consumer prices rose by 1.7% compared to February. For comparison, in January this figure was 0.7%, and in February – 1%.