The global oil market may face a significant surplus in 2026, with the excess supply reaching 4 million barrels per day. This forecast was released by analysts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), noting that production growth is outpacing demand dynamics.
This is reported by Finway
Production growth exceeds expectations
In 2025, OPEC+ countries, along with the USA, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana, will significantly increase oil production. According to the IEA, in September 2025, production rose by 5.6 million barrels per day compared to the same period in 2024. A substantial portion of this increase—3.1 million barrels per day—comes from OPEC+ countries.
The IEA estimates that global oil supply will increase by 3 million barrels per day this year, which is 300,000 barrels more than previous forecasts. In 2025, experts predict an additional increase of 2.4 million barrels per day.
Oil demand slows due to transportation electrification
Despite the active growth in production, oil demand remains relatively low. The IEA has revised its forecast for global demand growth in 2025 to 710,000 barrels per day—30,000 barrels less than the previous estimate. It is expected that in 2026, demand will not show significant growth, while supply will exceed it by 4 million barrels per day.
“A harsher macro climate and transportation electrification are leading to a sharp slowdown in oil consumption growth.”
The IEA report emphasizes that these factors significantly impact the consumption trends of ‘black gold’ worldwide.
Against the backdrop of the projected surplus, oil prices fell on October 14, 2025. According to the Investing portal, as of 1:01 PM Kyiv time, the price of Brent crude oil dropped by $1.1 to $62.21 per barrel, while American WTI fell by $1.09 to $58.40 per barrel.