Ukrainian banks are preparing for possible changes in monetary policy from the National Bank of Ukraine, which may lead to a decrease in deposit interest rates for the public. Experts advise Ukrainians not to delay in securing deposits under the most favorable conditions.
This is reported by Finway
Market Expectations: Discount Rate and Inflation Trend
As noted by the director of retail business at Globus Bank, Dmytro Zamotaiev, the National Bank of Ukraine may soon decide to lower the discount rate. Such a decision is likely to be made at the NBU’s monetary committee meeting scheduled for September 11.
The primary reason for this move is the stable decline in inflation: over the past three months, the inflation rate has decreased from 15.9% in May to 14.1% at the end of July, and it is expected to be around 13–13.8% for August. According to the banker, this trend is becoming stable, creating conditions for adjusting the regulator’s monetary policy.
“As we can see, the decrease in inflation is not just a forecast, not merely an expectation; it is already a real trend. Therefore, such a move by the regulator can be seen as timely and economically justified,” Zamotaiev stated.
Possible Scenarios for Deposit Rates
According to Zamotaiev’s estimates, the discount rate may decrease by 0.5–1 percentage points, depending on the NBU’s reasoning and the inflation forecast for the next two to three months. He considers the most likely scenario to be a “conservative” decrease of 0.5 percentage points; however, if positive economic trends continue in October, a more significant decrease of 1% may also be possible.
Following the change in the discount rate, a correction of other monetary instruments is expected, particularly the rates for three-month deposits, which serve as the basis for forming interest rates on hryvnia deposits. Banks are already actively preparing for such changes and may begin the process of gradually lowering deposit rates in the coming weeks.
At the same time, financial institutions may resort to short-term, seasonal promotions to attract new depositors, offering additional bonuses on top of the base rates. This is expected to support the positive growth dynamics of the deposit base currently observed.
According to the banker, even if clients do not manage to secure a deposit by September 11–12, attractive conditions will remain relevant at least until the end of the month. However, the final level of average deposit rates will only be known after the NBU’s official decision regarding the discount rate.