In January 2026, iron ore exports from Ukraine decreased by 34.4% year-on-year, reaching 2.05 million tons. Compared to December 2025, exports fell by 7.5%. These figures indicate a significant deterioration in the positions of Ukrainian producers in foreign markets.
This is reported by Finway
Decline in Supplies to Key Markets
China remained the key buyer of Ukrainian iron ore. However, in January, the volume of supplies in this direction decreased to 855.5 thousand tons, which is 50.4% less than in January 2025 and 23.8% less than in December. Shipments to Slovakia also decreased to 302.95 thousand tons (25.3% less than the same period last year and 5% less than in December), while 282.39 thousand tons of iron ore were sent to Poland (a year-on-year decrease of 29.3%, but a month-on-month increase of 8.9%).
Financial Results and Forecast for 2026
Export revenue from iron ore sales in January 2026 amounted to $160.25 million, which is 0.7% less than in December and 35.1% less than in January 2025.
“GMK Center expects that in 2026, iron ore exports from Ukraine will decrease by 5% year-on-year, or by 1.5 million tons, to 29 million tons. The main factor is the decline in iron ore prices in China and the worsening competitive positions of Ukrainian suppliers in this market against the backdrop of the launch of the Simandou project in Guinea and higher logistics costs. Partially compensating for the losses may be an increase in demand in the EU due to regulatory restrictions on steel imports. The forecast is based on market factors without considering war risks.”
Among the key factors contributing to the deterioration of export dynamics, analysts note the decline in iron ore prices in China, increased competition from other suppliers—particularly due to the launch of the large-scale Simandou project in Guinea—and rising logistics costs for Ukrainian companies. However, analysts point out that there may be some increase in demand in the EU market due to the introduction of new regulatory restrictions on steel imports, which could partially offset losses in the Chinese market. The forecast is based solely on market trends without accounting for additional war risks.