In May 2025, the currency market in Ukraine will once again be influenced by various economic, geopolitical, and military factors. Experts predict that the exchange rate of the dollar will remain relatively stable, with main fluctuations within the range of 41.6–41.8 hryvnias per dollar. This was reported by the Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks, the Chairman of the Board of Globus Bank, Serhiy Mamedov.
This is reported by Finway
Role of the National Bank of Ukraine
The National Bank of Ukraine, as a key player in the currency market, will continue to determine current rates and strategy. Serhiy Mamedov noted that from December to March, the regulator raised the discount rate three times, increasing it from 13% to 15.5%. The main goal of these measures was to curb the growth of consumer prices and strengthen the hryvnia.
“The discount rate at 15.5% currently corresponds to market conditions and will remain stable in the coming months,” Mamedov stated.
Inflation and Economic Factors
Experts predict that in May, inflation will be around 1–1.5% (up to 15% year-on-year). Serhiy Mamedov claims that an inflation peak can be expected next month, after which inflation will begin to decrease.
Additionally, an important factor for the currency market will be the regime of “managed flexibility,” which allows the regulator to conduct currency interventions to adjust the balance of supply and demand. Mamedov also emphasized that in June, the cancellation of the visa-free regime for Ukrainian exports to EU countries is planned, which may negatively impact currency earnings and Ukraine’s international reserves.
It is also important not to forget about the global economic situation. Serhiy Mamedov believes that despite a possible decline in the dollar’s value worldwide, this will not affect the currency market in Ukraine. “In wartime conditions, the Ukrainian currency market is partially regulated by the National Bank, which helps avoid sharp currency fluctuations,” he noted.
The euro exchange rate, in turn, will be formed based on global quotes for the dollar/euro pair. Mamedov added that in May, events related to the search for mechanisms to end the war, the economic consequences of attacks, and public sentiment may also influence the currency market.
“We expect that the dollar exchange rate will remain quite stable throughout May. The euro exchange rate will depend on global quotes,” summarized Serhiy Mamedov.