Active discussions are ongoing in political and military circles regarding the potential end of the active phase of the war with Russia by November this year. The President of Ukraine recently stated at a meeting with his party’s deputies about the likelihood of freezing the line of combat confrontation by the end of 2026, which sparked lively debate among analysts, parliamentarians, and military experts.
This is reported by Finway
Military-political situation and scenarios for development
Some experts are skeptical about this prospect, while others see logic in the forecasts of the head of state. In their opinion, even considering Russia’s mobilization potential, the Russian army is no longer capable of conducting large-scale offensive operations. It is emphasized that the timeline for the war to transition to a “frozen” phase may shift to early, mid, or even summer 2027.
According to analysts’ estimates, resources for major offensives are nearly exhausted, as evidenced by the map of hostilities. The so-called “gray zone” controlled by both sides through drones is expanding each month. The pace of the Russian army’s offensive has significantly decreased, and its potential is being depleted. At the same time, the Ukrainian side is also facing limitations in its capabilities for large-scale counteroffensives. This indicates a gradual stabilization of the front, becoming more stable on both sides.
Possible consequences of “freezing” the conflict
Experts doubt that this will necessarily lead to the signing of a peace agreement. The most likely scenario is a slow transition of the war into a chronic phase with periodic missile and drone strikes on rear facilities, energy, and logistics infrastructure. Sabotage and reconnaissance groups will continue to operate, and local battles will persist in certain sections of the front. However, the scale of hostilities will change, and the “freeze” will remain conditional, without official memoranda or documents.
“The ‘freeze’ will be very conditional. Because de facto it will not be peace, but something akin to the already forgotten ATO — with periodic flare-ups of confrontation. And, perhaps, without any official memorandum. Putin is unlikely to sign anything with Zelensky a priori. The reasons are clear to everyone.”
After the conflict transitions into a new phase, political challenges within the country will come to the forefront. The energy that society has directed towards external struggle for years will begin to focus on internal issues. This may lead to increased political competition and possible elections as early as 2027.
Citizens will demand answers to two key questions: who is responsible for the large-scale war that has lasted five years, and what further steps should the country take. Politicians should start thinking about these challenges now, preparing for a new era of state development after the active phase of the war ends.