The European Commission (EC) has released forecasts regarding the return of refugees to Ukraine, indicating that this process may begin as early as 2025. According to EC data, as of early January 2025, the number of individuals receiving temporary protection in European Union countries was approximately 4.3 million.
This is reported by Finway
It is expected that the total number of active registrations for temporary protection will remain stable throughout 2025. However, by the end of the year, it may decrease to 4.1 million, and by the end of 2026, to 3.8 million. This suggests that the pace of refugee returns to Ukraine may gradually increase.
Economic Consequences of the War
The growth of the workforce in the EU observed between 2022 and 2024 is largely driven by the influx of refugees from Ukraine. However, forecasts indicate that this process may slow down in 2025 and 2026.
The economic consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine remain highly uncertain and largely depend on the further development of events. The baseline scenario assumes that geopolitical tensions in the region and existing sanctions against Russia will continue until the end of 2026.
“Concerns about security have intensified as the war in Ukraine continues. Despite the efforts of the U.S. and the EU, a robust peace agreement that provides sufficient guarantees for Ukraine and the EU remains elusive.”