Analysts at Barclays predict that by 2035, China could replace around 37 million jobs with robots. This move is expected to help the country cope with a significant reduction in the workforce and a demographic crisis that is already acutely felt in the labor market.
This is reported by Finway
The impact of automation on China’s labor market
According to the bank’s estimates, if the current employment rate remains at approximately 65%, over the next decade, China’s workforce will decrease by 37 million people. The industrial sector, which accounts for about a quarter of the country’s economy, will be particularly vulnerable to this.
The Barclays report states that even productivity growth will only be able to compensate for part of the losses caused by demographic changes, making the active implementation of automation a necessity to support economic growth.
“The reduction in the workforce simultaneously creates a huge domestic market for absorbing millions of robots,” the bank’s analysts stated.
Optimistic scenario for robotics development
According to the most optimistic forecasts from experts, by 2035, up to 24 million humanoid robots could be working in China. This would represent nearly 4% of the entire workforce of the country. Barclays experts have dubbed the next decade the “decade of robots,” emphasizing that China has every chance of becoming a leader in this field.
Beijing is actively investing in the development of robotics and automation, and President Xi Jinping has repeatedly stressed the importance of technological innovations for the further economic progress of the state.
The demographic situation in China remains complex: in 2025, the country is expected to record the lowest number of births since 1949. The share of the working-age population has fallen to 61%, significantly lower than a decade ago when this figure exceeded 70%. Forecasts indicate that the ratio of the working-age population to people over 65 years old could halve over the next twenty years.
At the same time, Barclays emphasized that the estimate of replacing 60% of the workforce reduction with robots is based on optimistic assumptions regarding the pace of new technology adoption in China’s industry.
It was previously reported that humanoid robots are already involved in transporting luggage at Tokyo airports.