In the third quarter of 2025, Ukrainian businesses maintained positive expectations regarding the development of business activity over the next 12 months. The vast majority of market participants forecast an increase in the production of goods and services in the country, and also express confidence in the development of their own companies. However, these sentiments are formed against the backdrop of rising inflationary and currency expectations.
This is reported by Finway
Deterioration of the Business Expectations Index
The Business Expectations Index for enterprises in the third quarter decreased to 102.5% compared to 103.1% in the previous quarter. The main influencing factor remains the military actions and their consequences, which hinder the ability of businesses to increase production. Additionally, a significant challenge remains the shortage of qualified personnel. At the same time, experts note that the impact of currency factors on company operations has noticeably weakened.
However, the Business Expectations Index for enterprises decreased to 102.5% from 103.1% in the second quarter. Military actions and their consequences remain the dominant factor affecting the ability of enterprises to increase production volumes. The impact of the shortage of qualified workers is still significant. Meanwhile, the influence of exchange rate factors has noticeably weakened.
Small and Medium Enterprises Gradually Stabilizing
According to the results of a study by Advanter Group, Ukrainian small and medium enterprises, despite war risks, personnel shortages, and low business activity, continue to operate and gradually stabilize their operations. The Business Activity Index (UBI) in September was 37.9 points out of a possible 100, showing a slight increase compared to 36.1 in July and 36.9 at the beginning of the year. However, the indicator still remains in the zone of negative expectations, indicating a continued sense of cautious pessimism among entrepreneurs.