The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile despite the growing interest from institutional investors and the launch of spot ETFs. Tom Lee, head of BitMine, warns that the price of Bitcoin could drop by 50% again, even in the face of positive market trends.
This is reported by Finway
Duration of Market Cycle and Correction Risks
In his conversation with renowned crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano, Tom Lee emphasized that significant corrections are characteristic of Bitcoin. He noted that despite discussions about the market’s “maturity,” the digital asset still mirrors the dynamics of the stock market, and its volatility remains high. Lee highlighted that the crypto market cycle is no longer confined to four years but is becoming longer.
“I am confident there will be a 50% drop,” Lee stated in an interview with crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano.
According to Lee, the stock market often experiences corrections of around 25%, and if the S&P 500 index falls by 20%, Bitcoin could lose up to 40% of its value. Over the past six years, the stock market has shown gradual growth, but these processes are accompanied by unusually frequent significant pullbacks.
Price Predictions and Expert Opinions
Lee believes that a longer market cycle for Bitcoin is currently forming, which does not fit into the classic four-year model. Co-founder of BitMEX and director of the Maelstrom fund, Arthur Hayes, shares a similar view, suggesting that Bitcoin could reach a value of $200,000 by the end of the current decade.
In the Bankless podcast, Tom Lee reaffirmed his optimistic forecast, stating that Bitcoin is capable of rising to $200,000–$250,000 by the end of the year. Even if a 50% correction occurs after such a rise, the coin’s value would be around $125,000, which is nearly equal to its current all-time high.
Renowned trader Peter Brandt also warns of the potential danger of a 50% drop in Bitcoin’s price, comparing its dynamics to the soybean market of the 1970s, which experienced a sharp decline after a rapid rise.
History has seen similar cases: in November 2021, Bitcoin reached a record $69,000, but within three months, its price halved to $35,000 at the beginning of 2022.
At the same time, co-founder of Strategy Michael Saylor is convinced that “the crypto winter is over,” and Bitcoin will become the foundation of a new global financial system.