The World Bank expects that Ukraine’s economic growth will remain at 2% in 2026 in its baseline scenario. This forecast is based on the assumption that the Russian invasion will continue until the end of the current year. The analysis also takes into account the reforms necessary for Ukraine’s integration into the European Union, a new cooperation program with the International Monetary Fund, and the maintenance of high defense spending.
This is reported by Finway
Recovery and Prospects for Economic Growth
The World Bank notes that if a ceasefire is established by 2027, the Ukrainian economy could grow by 4% in 2027. However, this figure is 0.5 percentage points lower than the previous forecast, which is explained by the prolonged redistribution of resources for defense needs and the uncertain situation. At the same time, investments in the country’s reconstruction remain the main driver of potential economic growth.
“If we assume that a ceasefire will be established by 2027, growth is expected to increase to 4% in 2027, which is 0.5 percentage points lower than the June forecast, reflecting the continued high allocation of defense-related resources amid ongoing uncertainty,” the World Bank stated.
Assessments for Russia and the World
Regarding the Russian Federation, the World Bank has revised its GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 downward. Thus, in 2025, Russia’s GDP growth was 0.9%, in 2026 it is expected to be 0.8% (which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous forecast), and in 2027 it is projected to be 1% (0.2 percentage points lower).
The World Bank has also raised its forecast for global economic growth, noting the unexpected resilience of the global economy to shocks. According to updated estimates, real global GDP is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2026, exceeding the June forecast of 2.4%.
At the same time, according to the recently published annual report Global Risks Report 2026 by the World Economic Forum, the global community is gradually transitioning from a model of cooperation to a period of increasing competition and confrontation.