In 2026, Ukraine is expected to see an increase in gross agricultural production by 2.8% compared to the previous year. This forecast was made by experts from the National Scientific Center “Institute of Agricultural Economics.”
This is reported by Finway
State of the Agricultural Sector and Key Influencing Factors
The main reason for the positive dynamics in the domestic agricultural sector, experts say, is the gradual stabilization of the industry and the adaptation of agricultural producers to new challenges, primarily the consequences of the full-scale aggression of the Russian Federation, which has been ongoing since February 24, 2022. However, despite the anticipated growth, the projected figures remain 20.6% lower than the levels of 2021. This demonstrates that the recovery of the agricultural sector is ongoing and requires significant investments.
“The positive dynamics in the agricultural sector of the domestic economy is due to a certain stabilization of the industry’s functioning as a whole and the gradual adaptation of economic entities to current challenges, primarily related to the consequences of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation into the territory of Ukraine on February 24, 2022,” the statement reads.
Forecasts for Crop and Livestock Production
In the crop sector, analysts expect a production increase of 4%. This is driven by a stable export potential of grain and oilseed crops. At the same time, the sector is affected by a reduction in the sown areas for certain crops, particularly winter wheat, corn, and legumes, as well as rising costs of mineral fertilizers, plant protection products, and fuel.
In livestock production, a decline of 2.3% is forecasted compared to 2025, primarily due to a decrease in livestock numbers in household farms. Despite this, a slight increase in poultry meat and egg production is expected, while milk production, on the contrary, is projected to decrease by 4.3% compared to last year.
Overall, it is anticipated that in 2026, the country will be able to meet its basic domestic food needs thanks to stable production of grain and oilseed crops. However, the availability of certain types of products, such as milk, beef, and wool, will remain below pre-war levels.
For comparison, in 2025, agricultural production volumes in Ukraine decreased by 6.8% compared to 2024.