The scale of the shadowing in Ukrainian retail has reached a critical level: according to various estimates, up to 45% of the entire retail sector may operate outside the taxation system. Experts note that the total volume of retail trade in Ukraine exceeds ₴2 trillion per year.
This is reported by Finway
The Situation in Retail
At the same time, the share of the ten largest chains, which include ATB, Silpo, Aurora, Fora, Rozetka, Novus, Metro, Rush (EVA), Omega (Varus), and Foodcom (Big Pocket), amounts to only ₴529.2 billion, which is slightly more than 25% of the total volume. This indicates a significant presence of small and medium-sized retailers, a portion of which operates in the shadows.
Consequences of Shadowing
If before the onset of the full-scale war, shadowing was estimated at 30%, by 2025 it may exceed 45%. Thus, nearly ₴1 trillion in turnover bypasses the taxation system, leading to significant budget losses — both through tax evasion and the use of gray imports and smuggling.
According to data, 82% of food retailers in Ukraine are local players, and it is among them that the highest number of violations is recorded. These lost resources could have been used to support the army, develop infrastructure, or fund social programs.