The Russian Federation’s revenues from oil exports have reached their highest level since 2022 amid rising global prices driven by the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. The situation in the region has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, significantly limiting oil exports from Gulf countries. As a result, over 12 million barrels of oil were daily blocked in the region, creating additional opportunities for Russian exports. The Kremlin actively sold off stocks stored on tankers as refineries urgently sought alternative supply sources.
This is reported by Finway
Restoration of Supplies and Rising Urals Oil Prices
According to the latest data from vessel tracking systems, during the week leading up to April 5, 28 tankers carrying 20.88 million barrels of Russian oil left Russian ports. Supplies from the Ust-Luga port in the Baltic Sea remain suspended due to recent drone attacks, but exports from Primorsk have resumed after a break related to drone strikes. Unloading from the Pacific port of Kozmino has also partially resumed after a four-day halt.
The volume of Russian oil stored at sea has decreased: in the two weeks leading up to April 5, stocks fell to 105 million barrels, although this figure was 140 million barrels in mid-January.
Demand for Russian Oil from India and China
Indian refineries have significantly increased their purchases of Russian oil, which had previously been blocked in the Arabian Sea. In March, deliveries to India reached 1.9 million barrels per day — the highest level since June. This increase is attributed to U.S. permits for the import of Russian oil loaded before March 12. Meanwhile, exports to China have decreased to levels comparable to India, down from a record 2.1 million barrels per day observed in February.
Urals oil prices have been rising for the fifth consecutive week, driven not only by the Middle Eastern conflict but also by a reduction in the discounts that Moscow has had to offer China to sell its crude.
“Export prices for Urals from the Baltic Sea have risen by approximately $12.5 — to $85.73 per barrel, a similar increase has led to higher prices for shipments from the Black Sea to $84.07. The price of ESPO oil from the Pacific region has risen to an average of $92.11 per barrel. Prices for deliveries to India have also increased to $113.76 per barrel. All prices are based on data from Argus Media.”
At the same time, despite the rising prices, Russia cannot fully capitalize on the favorable situation due to ongoing drone attacks on export ports on the Baltic and Black Sea coasts.
The two-week ceasefire announced on Tuesday in the Iranian conflict has led to a decrease in oil prices. If supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are restored, Moscow’s revenues may decline. Specifically, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire, the price of oil fell below $100 per barrel, assuming the immediate and safe reopening of the strait to shipping.