The foreign exchange earnings of the Russian Federation from mineral product exports in the first half of the year decreased to $110.1 billion, which is $20.3 billion less compared to the same period last year. The main reasons for this decline were the decrease in global oil prices and the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukrainian territory.
This is reported by Finway
Dynamics of Russian Goods Exports
Despite a significant drop in energy revenue, the total volume of Russian goods exports did not decrease as much — only by $13.3 billion, reaching $195.5 billion. At the same time, revenue from food exports decreased by $3 billion. However, these losses were offset by an increase in the export of chemical industry products, as well as machinery and equipment by the same amount. Additionally, metal supplies increased by $4.2 billion. The share of raw materials in the structure of Russian exports remains high and currently exceeds 56%, although a year ago this figure was 62.9%.
Impact of Prices and Cessation of Gas Transit
As of January 1, the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine has been completely halted. The situation in export markets was further complicated by the drop in oil prices that occurred in early April after the initiation of a trade war by U.S. President Donald Trump. In January, the average price of a barrel of Russian Urals oil was $67.7, while in June it fell to $59.8 per barrel.
“The Central Bank of Russia predicts that average oil prices in 2025-2026 will be lower than in 2024. Consequently, the value of Russian exports this year will decrease to $410 billion after last year’s $433 billion, assuming an increase in prices for non-raw materials.”
Despite attempts to diversify exports, the raw material dependence of the Russian economy remains decisive, and the prospects for restoring previous levels of foreign exchange earnings appear uncertain.