In the first seven months of the 2025/26 marketing year, from July 2025 to January 2026, Ukraine exported 18.6 million tons of grain crops. This is a 24% decrease compared to the same period of the previous season. In monetary terms, the export decline amounts to 18%, according to data from the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club.
This is reported by Finway
Main Factors Behind the Decline in Grain Exports
The decrease in grain export volumes can be attributed to several key reasons. Firstly, this year’s harvest, particularly of corn, has been significantly delayed. As of early February 2026, about 8% of the corn acreage remains unharvested, mainly due to unfavorable weather in the fall, which complicated timely harvesting. Additionally, the harvested corn has a higher moisture content, requiring extended drying.
Secondly, the constant missile strikes by Russian forces on port infrastructure lead to significant difficulties in the grain unloading process. The destruction of railway hubs, elevators, port facilities, and vessels arriving at Ukrainian ports complicates logistics and affects export stability.
Logistical Problems and Alternative Routes
In January 2026, 90% of grain, oilseed, and processed product exports were conducted via sea routes. Alternative land routes have limited capacity and higher costs, which also impacts the overall export volume.
Moreover, uninterrupted exports are hindered by frequent port shutdowns due to shelling, air alerts, and periodic power outages. A significant increase in logistics service costs is caused by rising insurance payments and vessel downtime while waiting for safe passage.
“However, overall for the 2025/26 marketing year, we expect higher grain exports compared to the previous year; it will just be significantly stretched over time,” experts noted.
Despite all the challenges, the demand for Ukrainian grains in the global market remains stable due to product shortages on exchanges. According to the Ministry of Economy, the average monthly export of grains, oilseeds, and processed products currently exceeds 4 million tons, which is 20% lower than the wartime peak level.