The probability of a U.S. government shutdown by the end of January, according to users of the Polymarket platform, has sharply increased to 77%. Over the past day, this figure has surged by nearly 67%, marking one of the most dynamic changes in political prediction markets.
This is reported by Finway
Impact of Political Statements on Prediction Markets
The rapid rise in shutdown expectations was recorded following statements from U.S. President Donald Trump, who did not rule out the possibility of another government shutdown. He emphasized that the country “likely” could face such a situation again.
The country “likely” will face another government shutdown.
An additional influencing factor was the statement from Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer. He stated that Republicans would not support the appropriations bill if it included funding for the Department of Homeland Security. This further complicated the political situation surrounding the budget approval.
Impact on the CLARITY Act and the Crypto Market
Political uncertainty has also negatively affected the prospects for the consideration of the CLARITY Act, which is identified as one of the key documents for regulating the U.S. crypto market. Previous delays in its consideration have already been linked to the prolonged shutdown that lasted 43 days last fall.
Moreover, the reaction from the crypto industry has influenced the provisions of the bill. Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, announced the withdrawal of support for the CLARITY Act, emphasizing that “a bad law is worse than no law at all.” This has further intensified the discrepancies between market participants and lawmakers.
According to Alex Thorn, head of the research division at Galaxy Digital, the key issue remains the lack of compromise regarding the profitability of stablecoins. He noted that in the coming weeks, the parties may return to discussions on amendments, but there is currently no clear convergence of positions.
At the same time, the U.S. banking lobby has identified curbing profitable stablecoins as one of its main priorities for 2026.
