The National Bank of Ukraine has recorded a noticeable improvement in the labor market situation by the end of 2025. According to the regulator, the number of job vacancies increased faster than the demand for work, and the level of migration decreased: over the year, 200,000 fewer people left the country compared to the previous period.
This is reported by Finway
Migration Trends and Expectations for Citizens’ Return
According to UN data, in 2025, 0.3 million people left Ukraine, while in 2024, this figure was 0.5 million. At the same time, the National Bank notes that in 2026, the net outflow of the population could reach 200,000 people due to the worsening security situation.
“The deterioration of the security situation at the end of the year and the easing of exit rules for young people led to a somewhat greater outflow of migrants than anticipated,” writes the NBU.
However, the regulator expects positive changes in the coming years. In 2027, the return of Ukrainian refugees is projected to begin – approximately 100,000 people. In 2028, this process is expected to accelerate, with around 500,000 citizens potentially returning to Ukraine. The reasons for this will be the reduction of security risks and the stabilization of the economic situation in the country.
Impact on the Labor Market and Salary Dynamics
Surveys of businesses confirm a reduction in the share of companies that are forced to reduce the number of employees. However, the labor shortage persists, which is related to migration and mobilization processes. Businesses will continue to experience high demand for labor, which will contribute to a decrease in unemployment and support salary growth.
According to NBU estimates, in 2026, real wages will increase by 7%, as in the previous year. Throughout 2027–2028, this figure is expected to remain at around 6% annually. Thus, the labor market will gradually stabilize, and the level of wages in Ukraine will continue to rise.