The National Bank of Ukraine in its Inflation Report for January 2026 stated that the mass return of Ukrainian refugees to their homeland could begin as early as 2027.
This is reported by Finway
Expected Migration Trends
According to the NBU, due to the challenging security situation, the net outflow of the population from Ukraine in 2026 is expected to reach about 200,000 people. At the same time, in the following years, a gradual improvement in the situation in the Ukrainian labor market is anticipated, which will contribute to a shift in migration flows towards the return of citizens.
“It is assumed that net migration return will begin in 2027 (about 0.1 million people), and this process will accelerate in 2028 (0.5 million people), particularly considering the expected reduction in security risks and the overall improvement in the economic situation,” the report states.
Demand for Workers and Wage Growth
The NBU emphasizes that in the context of rebuilding the country and increasing investments, the Ukrainian labor market will experience high demand for specialists. This will further reduce the unemployment rate and increase wages in the country. According to forecasts, real wages in Ukraine will rise by 7% in 2026 (similar to 2025), and in 2027-2028, an annual growth of 6% is expected.
Overall, under favorable conditions, starting in 2027, Ukraine can expect a gradual return of its citizens who were forced to leave the country due to the war and economic difficulties.