The international rating agency Fitch Ratings predicts that the vast majority of Ukrainian refugees who have been in Poland since 2022 will continue to remain in the country even after a possible agreement on a ceasefire with Russia.
This is reported by Finway
Impact of Ukrainian Refugees on the Polish Economy
According to experts, around 1 million Ukrainian citizens who fled to Poland due to the full-scale war have already had a positive impact on the local labor market and economy. Analysts note that the presence of Ukrainians has helped sustain economic growth and contributed to the development of various sectors. The agency emphasizes that a large number of Ukrainian refugees will continue to stay in Poland, further contributing to GDP, employment, and the improvement of the country’s macroeconomic indicators.
“We are almost certain that a large percentage of these people will actually remain in Poland and contribute to the Polish labor market and GDP growth, as well as, of course, to other macroeconomic and fiscal variables.”
Forecast for Poland’s Economic Growth
According to Fitch Ratings, Poland’s economy is expected to grow by 3% in 2025, by 3% in 2026, and by 3.1% in 2027. Meanwhile, the Polish government anticipates even higher growth rates: 3.4% in 2025, 3.5% in 2026, and 3% in 2027. The country’s authorities hope that the increase in GDP will help reduce the state budget deficit, which reached 6.6% of GDP last year. Poland has already committed to reducing it to below 3% by 2028.