The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a significant increase in the oil surplus in the global market in 2026. According to the agency’s estimates, oil stockpiles will grow by 2.96 million barrels per day, surpassing the accumulation rates recorded at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic.
This is reported by Finway
Growth Rates of Demand and Supply
Oil demand this year, according to IEA calculations, will increase by only 680,000 barrels per day. This is the lowest growth since 2019. Such dynamics are primarily related to the slowdown in economic development in China, India, and Brazil. In the following year, 2026, further deceleration is expected — the increase in demand will be around 700,000 barrels per day. Experts note that by the end of the decade, the growth in oil consumption may completely halt.
OPEC+ and Non-Cartel Countries Increase Production
At the same time, the supply of raw materials in the market continues to grow at a faster pace. The OPEC+ cartel is accelerating the lifting of production restrictions: by September, quotas will be increased by 2.2 million barrels per day. Additionally, the production forecast for non-OPEC+ countries has been raised by 100,000 barrels per day for 2026. This means that an additional 1 million barrels per day will flow into the global market. The UAE has already reached a production level of 3.5 million barrels daily.
Currently, the price of Brent crude oil is about $66 per barrel, which is 12% lower than at the beginning of the year. Experts warn that if current trends persist, the oil surplus could trigger a significant drop in prices in the near future.
“Currently, Brent crude oil is priced at around $66 per barrel (-12% since the beginning of the year). If current market conditions remain, an oil surplus will form, leading to a significant drop in prices.”