In 2025, Ukraine could harvest 81.4 million tons of grain and oilseed crops, slightly exceeding last year’s figure of 79 million tons. With such a harvest, potential exports could rise to 49 million tons, compared to 46.7 million tons in 2024.
This is reported by Finway
Logistical Issues and the Impact of Russian Attacks
Despite the positive harvest forecast, the realization of this scenario depends on the country’s ability to overcome significant logistical challenges. The Ukrainian Grain Association emphasizes that grain exports will be significantly negatively affected by ongoing terrorist attacks from Russia on critical infrastructure: the energy sector, railways, and seaports. Due to these strikes, transport hubs cannot operate at maximum efficiency, complicating the export of the harvest abroad.
“The inability to export sufficient volumes of the harvest will not only lead to losses for Ukrainian farmers but could also deal a severe blow to Ukraine’s economy and its balance of payments.”
Main Harvest and Export Indicators for 2025
- Wheat: the harvest is expected to be 22.5 million tons (last year — 22.4 million tons), with potential exports of up to 16.5 million tons.
- Barley: 4.9 million tons (in 2024 — 5.6 million tons), exports — up to 2.3 million tons.
- Sunflower: 11.5 million tons (in 2024 — 12.8 million tons), with almost the entire harvest — 11.4 million tons — processed domestically.
- Rapeseed: 3.2 million tons (in 2024 — 3.8 million tons), exports — up to 2.1 million tons, with the remainder going for domestic processing.
- Soy: 5 million tons, significantly less compared to 6.8 million tons last year, exports — up to 2.5 million tons, with the rest for domestic processing.
Particular hopes within the association are pinned on the corn harvest, which is projected at 32 million tons, significantly exceeding last year’s result of 25.9 million tons. The potential export volume of corn could reach 25 million tons due to favorable weather conditions and high crop yields.
Looking ahead, analysts expect that in 2026, the total harvest of grain and oilseed crops could reach 84.5 million tons, with exports of up to 50 million tons, if logistical issues are resolved.