The World Steel Association (Worldsteel) forecasts a 0.3% increase in global steel demand in 2026, reaching 1.72 billion tons. The organization’s forecast is based on a new short-term review, which indicates that in 2027, a further acceleration in growth is expected at 2.2%, reaching 1.76 billion tons.
This is reported by Finway
Demand Recovery After Global Structural Changes
The chief economist of UNESID and head of the economic committee at Worldsteel, Alfonso Idalgo Calcerrada, noted that the April forecast confirms the trend identified back in October of last year. According to him, global steel demand will hit a low during the 2025–2026 period after a prolonged period of global structural changes that have hindered growth since 2022.
“There is a gradual shift towards moderate growth in 2026, and by 2027, a more dynamic recovery is expected. This is explained by changes in regional dynamics: in China, the pace of demand decline is slowing, while key emerging markets, particularly India, maintain positive momentum.”
Worldsteel emphasizes that the conflict in the Middle East will lead to a sharp decline in steel demand in that region this year, although under different circumstances, significant growth would have been anticipated.
Regional Dynamics: China, India, Developed Countries
The association forecasts a significant turnaround in trends in developed countries. After a prolonged decline, all major economies – the EU, the USA, Canada, Japan, and Korea – are expected to show positive dynamics in 2027. In China, the pace of steel demand decline will decrease to 1.5% in 2026, remaining nearly unchanged in 2027.
In developing countries (excluding China), growth will slow to 2.5% in 2026 due to a significant decline in the Middle East and inventory normalization in ASEAN countries. However, in 2027, this figure is expected to accelerate to 5.1%.
India remains the most dynamic market: demand for metal products in the country is projected to grow by 7.4% in 2026 and reach 9.2% in 2027.
According to Worldsteel estimates, steel demand in developed countries rose by 0.2% in 2025, marking the end of a three-year decline. A growth of 1% is forecasted for 2026, and 2.3% for 2027.
In the EU and the UK, steel demand is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2026 and by 3% in 2027, driven by increased investments in infrastructure and defense, as well as improvements in the macroeconomic situation. At the same time, price instability in energy resources remains a key risk for further growth.
In the USA, demand for steel is projected to increase by 1.7% in 2026 and by 2% in 2027.